Determinación de cambios de distribución de especies por efectos del cambio climático en el Parque Municipal Natural Campo Alegre y Parque Regional Natural Ucumarí en Risaralda Colombia

Abstract

Protected areas can be vulnerable to climate change, a problem that has concentrated most of the efforts for their protection worldwide. In this context, the present study determined whether the forests of Campo Alegre Natural Park and the natural regional park of Ucumarí in Risaralda-Colombia will retain their forest species indicative of possible climate change, since there is a great concern regarding displacement or Extinctions. For that purpose, 20 plots of 0.25 Ha were measured, distributed in the altitudinal gradient of 1700-3500 meters of altitude. The results are presented in two chapters; In the first one, the determination and characterization of the forest types were carried out, in which analyzes of structure, diversity, richness, climatic characterization and determination of indicator species were carried out, where three types of forests were statistically differentiable in composition and six indicator species Which presented the best fit to the CAO model. In the second chapter, we present the results of the modeling of the changes in its distribution in the event of a possible climatic change in the year 2050. In this model the restricted additive ordering technique (CAO) was used, with three models of the representative route RCP 2.6. It was established that the species Heliocarpus popayanensis will probably increase its abundance when there are temperature changes below 8.9 ° C (calculated average), otherwise it will happen for the species Aniba muca. Modeling predicts that protected areas will conserve species, but will lose key areas of current distribution; There will be observed migration phenomena towards the area of the Natural National Park of Los Nevados, with a clear reduction of the abundance of the indicative species in areas predicted in the current distribution and the gain of other suitable areas of greater elevations to the year 2050.