Análisis de precipitaciones con modelos predictivos a partir de la interrelación de series de tiempo y geoestadística para el Departamento de Cundinamarca

Abstract

The current situation referring to climatic fluctuations and variabilities can be analyzed from statistical processes which allow the treatment of meteorological information. In this specific case, the study proposes the analysis of monthly rainfall measured in the department of Cundinamarca, in the period of time from 2000 to 2018, this to determine the behavior in that period and establish a predictive model that fits it. To this end, it is intended to determine a methodology based on the interrelation of geostatistics and time series, with the purpose of establishing if the exercise leads to a good practice for the analysis of the behavior of precipitation. Based on the above, trend analyses and estimators allow the realization of predictions related to the precipitation study variable, with the purpose of improving the quality of the information and that it can be interpreted in the best way.