Modelamiento y simulación del fenómeno de la deserción y retención estudiantil universitaria tratado como un sistema complejo

Abstract

The college dropout (public and private) in Colombia is about 46%, i.e., of every 100 students who start a career, 45 do not end, with a very important social, economic and personal impact that concerns society as a whole, from the government, university authorities and population in general. If we consider it a project or a company with 45% of loss, it would be untenable. It is a phenomenon that in the past 30 years is being studied more and with greater rigor; However, the most common models focus on the temporal and spatial and from there derived very interesting study sheds: theoreticians like:(Spady, 1970), who defines a psychological approach and proposes that the lack of social integration, as well as the satisfaction of the student with the university experience, are determinants in the decision of dropping out, red on the other hand the difficulty of study was born of their own conceptualization and drop-out rates and factors or cause the same (Tinto, 1989), similarly work of team of researchers as the National University, the University of Antioquia, EAFIT University. The most commonly accepted causes are: individual, socio-economic, academic and institutional (Brown, 2004). This research acknowledges that it is a complex problem and dares to propose and develop scheme and methodology that differs in part from models known so far, i.e. precisely is a problem not only complex but increasing complexity, manifesting emergencies in their behavior and requires the use of elements of theoretical, conceptual and instrumental tools of complex systems. Intends to show that modeling and simulation tools of complex systems, will allow to reveal unknown behavior of desertion and display behaviors emerging.