Valoración de un proyecto de inversión agrícola de Café municipio de Nilo Cundinamarca, Vereda Batavia Predio Las Brisas

Abstract

This project assesses an agricultural investment project for coffee, structured in three parts. The first component is the valuation of the land where the project will be implemented. The second involves the valuation of the agricultural investment itself, taking into account the establishment phase and the profits derived from coffee sales. The third and final part focuses on the valuation of the option to expand the crop in the future.

The appraisal assignment for the valuation of the property consists in determining the market value of the land of "Las Brisas" estate, with a breakdown of the value per hectare. This is required because the project plans to acquire two (2) hectares from the Las Brisas property. For the valuation of the agricultural coffee investment project, traditional methods such as discounted cash flow (DCF) are used. Within this framework, the Net Present Value (NPV) and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are calculated. The project is initially designed to start with the planting of one hectare. Since traditional methods do not account for the risks associated with agricultural activities, the Real Options methodology is applied. This involves incorporating probability into the NPV, calculating volatility, and estimating upward and downward scenarios. A binomial tree is constructed to model these outcomes, and the option to expand cultivation to a second hectare in year six (6) is evaluated. The results indicate that the expansion option adds value, making it feasible to extend the plantation in year six.