Análisis espacio-temporal de la expansión urbana en la localidad de Kennedy y su relación con las inundaciones del río Bogotá

Abstract

The city of Bogotá D.C., according to the District Planning Secretariat and the National University of Colombia (2007), has been marked by unequal expansion processes, driven by market dynamics and, in many cases, lacking adequate territorial planning. This dynamic has fostered the concentration of low-income populations in peripheral areas with deficient urban conditions and greater exposure to natural hazards. The present research analyzes the relationship between this urban expansion in the northwestern sector of the Kennedy locality and the flood risk associated with this phenomenon.

To establish the relationship between these phenomena, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools were used, focusing on the application of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to multispectral satellite imagery from 2016, 2019, and 2024, with the aim of identifying the transformation of vegetated land into urbanized areas. Additionally, for the purposes of this study, it was essential to review historical records of flood events in the locality, from 1920 to the present, as well as the current territorial regulations. This made it possible to establish a timeline that highlights the intervention of different institutional actors, both at the district and national levels, regarding urban expansion and recorded flood events. This approach was based on the methodological guidelines established by the Agustín Codazzi Geographic Institute (IGAC) and the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD) in their publication Atlas of Risk in Colombia: Revealing Latent Disasters (IGAC & UNGRD, 2018), which emphasizes the importance of incorporating spatial analysis into flood risk management in the national territory.

The results obtained reveal a significant correlation between unplanned and excessive urbanization and vulnerability to flooding in the Kennedy locality. This finding underscores the need to formulate and implement comprehensive territorial strategies that promote effective risk management aimed at sustainable development.