Modelo de espacio de estados para describir cambios en el área de cobertura del páramo de Chingaza

Abstract

The paramo ecosystems are very important because they are a unique water source in the world, being of great importance for many species of flora and fauna that live within them, in addition there are few studies that focus on the change they are undergoing. these ecosystems. The purpose of the study is to find the relationship that meteorological variables may have in the changes of coverage in the Chingaza páramo. This article evaluates the generation of a state space model based on the climatological variables of temperature, humidity, and precipitation, to describe the change in the coverage area of the Chingaza páramo (Colombia) between 2009 and 2019. Correlation analysis, Dickey-Fuller tests, white noise test or Ljung box test and ARIMA models were performed on these time series to verify their level of prediction, using the R software. The data obtained show that the variables of temperature and Páramo and sub-páramo vegetation are the ones that best explain the change in the páramo coverage area. An optimal model was obtained with an R^2 of 0.4874, where the model explains 48% of the change in páramo and sub-páramo vegetation cover. These results show that, if possible, generate a state space model of change in the area of coverage of the páramo de chingaza, explained by the climatic variable of temperature, the model becomes a base tool for future studies where other variables are integrated.