Metodología para la evaluación del riesgo en proyectos y su impacto en la etapa de planeación para soportar el proceso de toma de decisiones con enfoque matemático aplicado a proyectos de extracción de minerales. Caso de estudio minería de carbón coquizable en Colombia

Abstract

This work proposes a methodology for quantitative risk assessment in a project, based on the criteria of experts and considering the impact on the tasks that comprise it. Initially, the document presents the methodologies and tools identified in the state of the art, highlighting the difficulty in decision-making processes during project planning, especially in the prioritization of tasks and resources to achieve goals. The proposed methodology aims to improve efficiency in the alignment of a project's objectives through a combined approach which aligns expert judgment with a mathematical tool. Through a qualitative evaluation of the risk in each task of the project and the evaluation of its impact when materializing between the different risks, this is combined with a quantitative evaluation, giving the project manager a critical path focused on risk management and probable occurrence of impacts already valued. This methodology is applied in this work to an already executed coking coal mining production project in Colombia, in order to compare the evaluation of the critical path definition methodology with the proposal.