Metodología para la evaluación de prefactibilidad de proyectos de generación distribuida mayores a 100 kw con paneles fotovoltaicos usando indicadores de desempeño técnicos y financieros

Abstract

This study aims to develop an integrated methodology for the pre-feasibility assessment of distributed generation projects exceeding 100 kW using photovoltaic solar panels, based on a combination of technical and financial performance indicators adapted to the Colombian context. From an engineering project management perspective, the work focuses on creating a specialized methodological consulting service—structured as a technology-based enterprise—whose technical and economic viability is also evaluated in the document. To this end, a review and comparative analysis of seven existing photovoltaic project assessment methodologies were conducted (Martínez Villoria, 2020; Morales Sánchez & Ramírez Contreras, 2020; Correa Herrera, 2023), alongside the identification and justified selection of six technical and eight financial indicators. The foundational methodological frameworks selected were the PMBOK 7th Edition (PMI, 2021), the IEC 61724 standard (2021), and IRENA cost reports, all explicitly adapted to the Colombian regulatory context. The proposed methodology is structured into five sequential phases with three "go/no-go" decision points, linking energy simulation in PVsyst with financial analysis via a 25-year projected free cash flow model and evaluation across three mandatory scenarios. A key adaptation is the explicit incorporation of tax incentives from Law 1715 of 2014 into the financial assessment. The methodology was applied and validated through the GD-BOGOTÁ project case study, an actual 300 kWp system in Bogotá D.C. The result is a replicable methodological tool that facilitates early-stage decision-making, reduces technical and financial uncertainty, and contributes to improving the structuring of distributed generation projects in Colombia. Additionally, the economic-financial study of the resulting consulting service demonstrates its viability, highlighting the methodology's potential as a specialized technical consulting product within the framework of the national energy transition.