Distribución potencial de la comadreja de cola larga (Neogale frenata Lichtenstein, 1831) (Mammalia: Mustelidae) en diferentes escenarios de cambio climático antropogénico en Colombia

Abstract

The distribution of small carnivorous mammal species, such as Neogale frenata Linchstein (1831), in the Andean region is of vital importance in high-mountain ecosystems, as they fulfill an ecological role in pest control and contribute to ecosystem balance. This species has been reported to occur in both rural and urban areas, demonstrating its adaptation to different environments. The present study evaluated the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the potential distribution of N. frenata in Colombia. Distribution was modeled for the recent period (1970–2000) using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), based on species presence data and six bioclimatic variables from WorldClim. Subsequently, the distribution was projected into three future periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080) under two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from the global climate model HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL. Thermal and precipitation tolerance ranges were described using boxplots, and gains and losses in potential distribution area were quantified. The results show areas of climatic suitability for the species in at least 15 Andean departments, with high predictive performance of the model (AUC of 0.939 for training and 0.877 for testing). However, future projections indicate a progressive loss of habitat, especially under the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario, suggesting a potential reduction in the species’ distribution. These findings provide key information on the climatic ranges of N.frenata and help anticipate the impacts of climate change for its conservation.