Una introducción a la evolución dinámica de las táuridas

Abstract

This monograph is titled "An Introduction to the Dynamic Evolution of the Taurids" and aims to study, analyze, and interpret the dynamic evolution of ten objects from the fragment swarm known as the Taurids. The objects, ordered from smallest to largest MOID (Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance), are: 1993 KA2, 2001 QJ96, 2019 YM, 2019 GB, 1995 FF, 2003 QC10, 2020 DV, 2019 BJ1, 2006 SO198, 1996 RG3, and their progenitor, Comet 2P/Encke. The methodology involved exploring and documenting the orbital dynamics of the Taurid fragments, as well as developing and configuring a code in the Python programming language, based on REBOUND, to graphically explore the time-domain variations of the semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination of their orbits. The code was run for 50, 100, 1,000, 10,000, and 100,000 years, respectively, for all the fragments, including Comet 2P/Encke, and the resulting dynamic evolution graphs were obtained. This work analyzed in detail the dynamic evolution graphs of the fragment with the smallest MOID, fragment 1993 KA2. It was observed that its orbital elements vary cyclically over long-time intervals, and these variations appear to be predictable over time. Given these results, it is unlikely that a perturbation will occur that forces the fragment to significantly change its orbit, and therefore, it cannot be stated with certainty that these fragments pose an immediate threat to Earth. Moreover, the model presented in this work is highlighted as it is suspected that within the Taurid swarm there are objects whose mass would be significant and have not yet been studied. In these cases, the model presented in this work is a great tool for detecting their potential hazard. Cases like those of Tunguska and Chelyabinsk remind us of Earth's vulnerability in in timely determining disturbances in the orbits of fragments that have yet to be cataloged.