Modelo predictivo de erupciones volcánicas a partir de MODVOLC e interferometría de radar. Caso de estudio : Volcán Galeras

Abstract

Current factors for volcanic eruption predictions in Colombia are based on seismological and meteorological studies, which are carried out through permanent monitoring directly on the ground by means of seismograms or barometers, among others. It should be noted that GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) images are an instrument used by the Colombian Geological Survey (SGC) to determine thermal changes in the volcanic surface. However, the sensory characteristics of this input is a limitation in the temporal and spatial scale of this type of studies. This project seeks to implement an alternative based on the implementation of satellite images of higher spectral, spatial and temporal resolution (MODIS and Sentinel-1), which allow the application of mathematical and physical concepts without interacting directly with the study area. By means of the MODIS products, the thermal anomalies were determined, which together with the ground deformation extracted with differential interferometry in Sentinel-1, the proposed model was constructed, which includes variables sensitive to volcanic activity. The validation of the model is based on the Galeras volcano for June 2018, intervals that the SGC records a change in volcanic activity.