Modelamiento e interpretación de la amenaza sísmica mediante el enfoque determinístico y probabilístico: Estudio de caso Mesa de los Santos, Colombia

Abstract

Mesa de Los Santos is located in the department of Santander, formed by the municipalities of Los Santos, Girón and Pie de Cuesta. This territory is part of the Bucaramanga Seismic Nest, characterized by presenting a high frequency of deep seismic events (around 150 km) of medium and low magnitude (around 3° and 6° on Richter scale); from the above, no seismic investigations of this territory have been found due to its nature of deep events. Thus, the present monograph project aims to approach the seismic studies of La Mesa de Los Santos by modeling the seismic hazard through the implementation of two methods: deterministic and probabilistic. The deterministic method implements geological and tectonic data of the study area, thus generating a maximum acceleration map (PGA); the probabilistic method incorporates the concepts of return period and exceedance probability. As a result, 4 seismic hazard maps were obtained: hazard map by the deterministic method (moderate, high and very high hazard level) and hazard map with probabilistic approach analyzing the accumulated probability given 50 years (low and moderate hazard level), 500 years (moderate, high and very high hazard level) and 1000 years (moderate, high and very high hazard level). Finally, it was concluded that the results of both methods converge in terms of: low and moderate threat levels, the results tend to converge when the probability accumulation time is greater than 500 years; and high and very high threat levels, when the probability accumulation time is greater than 1000 years.