Distribución a través del tiempo de las especies Bothriechis schlegelii, Bothriechis supraciliaris (REPTILIA, SERPENTES: VIPERIDAE) en el Neotrópico

Abstract

This recent project aims to evaluate the potential distribution of the neotropical snakes Bothriechis schlegelii and Bothriechis supraciliaris under three temporal scenarios: past, recent, and future. These species, endemic to the Neotropics, play a key ecological role in regulating the trophic chain but face multiple threats such as habitat loss, climate change, and human persecution. The research is based on the use of species distribution models (SDMs) through the MaxEnt algorithm, integrating georeferenced occurrence records with bioclimatic variables obtained from the CHELSA repository. For the past, climatic conditions from the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene were considered; for the recent period, 1981–2010; and for the future, projected scenarios from the MPI-ESM1-2-HR climate model under the SSP5-8.5 trajectory. This project's relevance lies in both its ecological and conservation value, providing spatial information to anticipate habitat shifts and identify areas of projected climatic stability. Furthermore, the limited number of field records available for these species, resulting from their cryptic behavior and low field detectability, represents a methodological challenge that modeling helps overcome. MaxEnt has proven suitable for species with presence-only data and scarce records, as it applies the principle of maximum entropy to estimate potential distribution based on the environmental conditions associated with known occurrence sites. This study not only contributes to the understanding of the biogeography of species sensitive to environmental change, but also fits within the global context of the biodiversity crisis, providing concrete spatial evidence on the effects of climate change on neotropical arboreal pit vipers.