Aplicación de metodologías de pronósticos a una empresa del sector turismo

Abstract

In this monograph the implementation of various forecasting techniques is presented to a leading multinational in the tourism sector in order to analyze and generate tools for the management of the demand for air tickets. As a result of the reflection, a methodology is designed for the company to implement this process in its strategic planning through quantitative forecast models that best fit the characteristics of the historical data taking into account that until now the methods used to predict the behavior of future demand are clearly based on the opinions of the board of directors. In the development of the methodology, the components of the time series are initially analyzed to determine the forecast models to be evaluated, then the best type of forecast is decided by means of the adapted performance measures and finally a proposal for improvement is generated for the company based on the results obtained.