Implementación de Biomodelos estimativos de la calidad ecosistémica en el nevado del Cocuy al año 2030 producto del retroceso glaciar

Abstract

It has been evident the melting of the snow cap of the Sierra Nevada coconut in its different peaks, this generates that the conditions of the ecosystems change and in this way the species inherent to these; the research is done with the objective of establishing the spatial and temporal dimension of the communities of the land in the areas surrounding the Cocuy, taking into account the jurisdiction of the PNN El Cocuy (delimitation of the national natural parks of Colombia) and of this way to identify the possible adverse effects of climate change on them, thus establishing a possible scenario for the year 2030. The latter, is done by defining maximum entropy in the MaxEnt software, which considers the variables of type that correlate with the actual location of the species to estimate the future potential. The dynamics that are managed within the distribution maps of species, is related to the altitudinal profile, showing the smallest scenarios for the development of the species in the highlands, which predicts a decrease in the boundaries of the zones demarcated for the study, that is, the species have a conglomerate in the upper part of the birds that repeat the conditions that have been lost further down latitudinally speaking.