Efecto de factores antrópicos en la ocurrencia de incendios del bosque seco tropical de la cuenca alta del río Magdalena

Abstract

Dry forests have historically been associated with the presence of fires, due to a high accumulation of biomass, climatic conditions and increasing anthropic pressure. Human communities associated with ecosystems / dry forests have generated an alteration in the fire regimes typical of these ecosystems, mainly caused by a higher population density and the expansion of agricultural and urban borders. In this sense, this research evaluates the effect of anthropic factors on the occurrence of fires in areas of the tropical dry forest of the upper Magdalena River basin, in two municipalities in which a very high frequency of fires has been registered for the period 2001 -2018. To this end, in the municipalities of Coello and Ortega, in the department of Tolima, 15 variables of anthropic origin potentially explanatory of fires were analyzed based on secondary and primary information. Subsequently, those variables that allowed it were spatialized through geographic information systems and were related to the number and location of fires, both at the municipality and village level, using a principal component analysis. The number of fires was obtained from the data of thermal anomalies captured by the MODIS sensor in its 6-MCD14DL collection from the Aqua and Terra satellites. Additionally, a spatially explicit model was carried out between the fire sources and the variables through a generalized logistic linear model (GLM). It was found that for the period 2001-2018 there were a total of 435 fires in the two municipalities. There was a high relationship between the number of fires with the number of inhabitants and the areas planted for temporary crops, no relationship was found with livestock activities. At the spatial level, although variations were found between municipalities, a high relationship was found between the sources of fire with the property area, the distance to infrastructures (i.e. population centers, electrical networks, roads) and agricultural production. This research shows the importance of working at the municipal level in risk management and land planning due to the differences between sites at the economic, social, cultural and development levels. Additionally, this study provides theoretical elements for those decision makers related to the use, management, conservation and restoration of the country's dry tropical forests.