Dinámica de cambio de las coberturas vegetales pertenecientes a la microcuenca del Río Soacha para el periodo de 1999 a 2040

Abstract

The dynamics of change of the coverage can generate with it the environmental deterioration of large areas of the landscape, currently uncontrolled and unplanned urban growth in space due to the population explosion is one of the main factors for the transformation of natural and productive coverage by other types of areas, mainly residential; natural coverages are the ones that have the greatest pressure and are affected by anthropic actions. The municipality of Soacha has experienced in the last decades an accelerated population increase and associated to diverse socioeconomic conditions of the population, to the conurbation with the capital and to an overflowed and scarce planning, has generated the growth of the urban edge affecting wide natural systems, currently the Soacha River has become a receiving channel of multiple polluting sources. This study provides an analysis of the dynamics of change of plant cover in the area of the Soacha River basin for a period of analysis from 1999 to 2040. Multispectral images of free access (Landsat and Sentinel) were used for digital processing and identification of classes of coverage in the area, the dynamics of change were made from the use of transition matrices and landscape indexes of composition, spatial configuration, connectivity and heterogeneity at the structural level for the landscape, this in order to verify their spatial-temporal transformation behavior during the evaluation period, in the same way the Land Change Modeler was used to predict the transition potentials of the coverage with an artificial neural network and including variable of influence, the prediction was made by means of chains of Márkov. In the micro-basin there are several changes in its space, the most important and I get the most concern is the increase in the urban fabric, the natural coverage of fragmented forests and shrubs suffer the greatest pressure, decreasing over time surface; the transformation is of an order superior to 50% in the zone, which indicates the high degree of intervention that exists, being the degradative scenario of coverage the strongest; the landscape clearly exhibits a process of fragmentation for all its coverings, with greater repercussions for the shrubs; natural forests, on the other hand, present a pattern of aggregation but with a marked decrease in their area; the heterogeneity of the landscape becomes more complex over the years; Coverage projections continue to maintain the pattern of the dynamics of change, consolidating for subsequent years the urban fabric as the dominant coverage while plant and productive coverage are reduced. All the previous implications seek to be articulated in territorial planning and socio-ecological transitions for sustainability.