Relaciones causales entre el flujo logístico, población y captura policial en Colombia 2010 a 2019

Abstract

There are different variables that affect the processes that at first we think are given by themselves, the Granger causality technique is a procedure that determines the existence of a bidirectional, unidirectional causal relationship or the absence of causality, based on analysis time series statistic. That is why the present investigation began with the compilation and organization of the databases that contain the information of the variables to be studied (births, deaths, tolls, captures, air traffic to and from Colombia), which were structured for the period of time 2010 to 2019 and organized on a monthly basis; After this, the Granger test was performed for each of the variables. Finally, it was possible through the application of the selected method to determine the state of each variable compared to the others, obtaining the causal relationships that provide the reader with an easy understanding of how, in terms of Granger, a process can or cannot cause another over time. without at first glance these two have a direct thread.