Distribución potencial de Atractus Crassicaudatus (Duméril, Bibron y Duméril, 1854), ante eventos de cambio climático en la Sabana de Bogotá, análisis de una posible variación intrapoblacional

Abstract

The so-called savanna snake Atractus crassicaudatus, is an ophidio belonging to the family Dipsadidae, nocturnal and endemic to Colombia. It is a small species, adults have a length between 400 to 440 mm, its color is black on the back with the belly yellow, red or orange and transverse lines of the same tone. They present seven infralabials, the first three in contact with the great ones. It is found under rocks or decomposing trunks generally close to bodies of water, the altitudinal interval of its distribution is from 2000 to 3000 meters above sea level. The current and potential distribution of the species was elaborated, to determine the influence of climate change on its future distribution, as well as to analyze the coloration patterns in different populations. In this way, it was proposed to design 4 distribution models for the year 2050 and 2070 under two representative routes of concentration (RCP), 2.6 being the most favorable scenario and 8.5 the most pessimistic. It began with the collection of biological data in the field in the municipalities of Cota, Chía, Tocancipá and Bogotá and complemented with databases of: The University of the Andes, which had access to the specimens of the species, Research Institute of Biological Resources Alexander von Humboldt (IAvH-R), Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (MPUJ-REPT), National University of Colombia, Gbif and Natura List. Continuing with the download of the bioclimatic layers of the WorldClim portal taken from the HadGEM2-AO model, we finally modeled the potential distribution in MaxEnt and elaborated absence-presence maps thanks to the results obtained and the ArcGis program. Four coloration morphotypes were established distributed in Bogotá and Cundinamarca, being the most abundant the Black-yellow. The current distribution goes from being limited to the Bogotá savanna to extend to the departments of Boyacá, Santander and Meta. In the models of potential distribution, there is a reduction in the distribution area of the species in the two years based on the RCPs 26 and 85; in 2050 under scenario CPR 26, the lowest reduction compared to the current one is observed, while for the year 2070 in the modeling with RCP 85, the greatest reduction in the area of distribution of the species is obtained. In this way it is concluded that: the morphotypes are not related to any geographical pattern. Atractus crassicaudatus goes from being an endemic species of the Bogotá savanna to being an endemic species of Colombia that is distributed over part of the eastern mountain range and that the models of potential distribution allow to show how the effects of climate change will reduce the area where the species is distributed.